Matches with a high total and a low chance of both teams scoring: myth or reality?

Sometimes, a match is full of goals, but one team never reaches the opponent's goal. This can be confusing for experienced players, as a high total is often associated with both teams scoring. However, is it possible that this is just an illusion, and there is a systematic pattern behind the statistics?

A blow to the balance

Betting on both teams scoring on the Betmac website is based on the assumption of comparable capabilities. When the forces are equal, goals from both sides seem logical. However, in matches with a clear favorite, things change. The underperforming team often finds itself in the role of an extra, especially if they are playing on the road or are not physically prepared. This is where matches with totals of 4, 5, or even 6, but with a single goalscorer, often occur.

In 2023, La Liga recorded 14 matches with totals exceeding 4.5, and in eight of these matches, only one team scored. Real Madrid and Barcelona regularly scored 4-5 goals at the Camp Nou and Santiago Bernabéu without receiving a response. This is not an exception, but an example of a consistent pattern where the dominant side simply prevents the opponent from creating anything meaningful in the front.

The Pressure of the Favorite

A strong team can turn the game into a one-sided show. This is especially true in matches with high-tempo play and aggressive pressure. Under such pressure, the opponent's space is eliminated, and their rare attacks are quickly thwarted. It turns out that the total can grow at the expense of one team, while the other team doesn't even reach the penalty area.

Interestingly, bookmakers don't always correctly account for this ratio. The odds for both teams to score sometimes look generous compared to the low odds for the favorite's victory. This disparity allows observant bettors to find lines with inflated odds. However, this strategy requires attention to the context, such as the lineups, motivation, and the density of the schedule.

The open account factor

When the score is open in the debut, the match often turns into a shootout. But not always. It happens differently: one goal paralyzes one of the opponents. He either goes into a deep defense, or loses organization. And if the leader continues to dominate, then we get a scolding without a response.

In the English Premier League, a typical scenario is when a top club opens the score in the first 15 minutes. In such matches, the frequency of both goals is sharply reduced, especially against teams at the bottom of the table. As a result: 4:0 or 5:1 with minimal activity on the part of the underdog.

Games with a skew

There are matches where one team is simply not capable of posing a threat. In such cases, even a high total does not save the bet on both teams scoring. A typical example is a cup match where an elite club faces a team from the third division. Or a crucial match in the group stage, where one team is fighting for survival while the other has already qualified and is not putting up much resistance.

In such matches, it is not the number of goals that matters, but the distribution of pressure. And if all the dynamics are concentrated on one half of the field, the performance becomes one-sided.

Matches with a large score and a one-sided result are not uncommon, but a recognizable pattern. A high total does not guarantee a goal from both sides, especially in games with a clear favorite. For betting on both teams scoring, it is important not only the overall focus on attack, but also the presence of two full-fledged attacking forces.